HOPPIN' DOWN THE BUNNY TRAIL

This past weekend, I found myself wondering why, given the hue and cry Fox News and its fellow travelers raise every December about a mythical War on Christmas, they haven’t accused “the Left” of waging a similar War on Easter.  That seems like a missed opportunity to stir up the Christian Right.

But we can still take solace in the words of inspiration offered by Donald Trump last Sunday:

“Also, I want to thank the  White House Historical Association and all of the people that work so hard with Melania, with everybody, to keep this incredible house or building, or whatever you want to call it – because there really is no name for it; it is special – and we keep it in  tip-top shape  We call it sometimes tippy-top shape.  And it’s a great, great place.”

Lordy, does the man even know what he’s saying?  He starts out fine, probably from a script, and then his attention wanders.  “House, building, whatever.  Tip-top, tippy-top, whatever.  If I say ‘great’ twice, will someone get that Easter Bunny away from me?”  The Easter Bunny doesn’t look happy to be there either. 

This is a trivial example of an argument that has been going on ever since the election.  Should we even pay attention to stuff like this?  People worry that “Ephemeral Trump Story X” is distracting us from “Important Trump Story Z.”  Does it matter who Trump appointed as the new head of Veterans Affairs when his minions are trying to politicize the 2020 Census?  Who should we pay more attention to – Stormy Daniels or John Bolton?

I think those are false choices.  None of us can pay attention to everything, but everyone can pay attention to more than one thing.  I don’t believe there’s much value in either ignoring the outrage du jour, or in paying attention only to the most damaging aspects of the Trump era, which strikes me as a path to burnout.

Some people are searching for a magic anti-Trump strategy, and I don’t think there is one.  The congressional mid-terms are still seven months away, and to quote the famous pundit Doris Day, the future’s not ours to see.  As frustrating as it may be, all most of us can do in the meantime is to pay attention and try to keep the pressure on.  That pressure can take a variety of forms, from mockery to occasional mass rallies in the streets.

While we’re waiting for the mid-term elections (or the next mass rally), we can still appreciate the work of a few people who are in a position to actively bring pressure to bear on Donald Trump.  And Trump has clearly been feeling the pressure lately.

Robert Mueller’s investigation is proceeding despite almost daily rumors that Trump will fire the Special Counsel.  Trump is obviously terrified by the investigation into the connections between his campaign and Russia.  He telegraphs his fear – as well as his guilt – every time he tweets about it.

And with every week that passes, it’s clear that Trump is vulnerable in other areas as well.  The massive corruption in this administration (Trump, his family, his staff, his Cabinet) was entirely predictable, and it will make a good campaign issue for Democrats in November. 

Less predictable was the arrival of Stormy Daniels and her attorney, Michael Avenatti (not to mention all the other women who are stepping forward to accuse Trump of adultery and intimidation).  Trump and his fixer, Michael Cohen, have found themselves in a fight in which their customary tactics – threaten and delay – don’t seem to be working.  Threats have backfired, and Stormy is in no hurry.  She seems to be enjoying her time in the limelight.  Remarkably, the porn star has more credibility than the president. 

My hope is that Daniels and Avenatti will keep the pressure on, and in the process, reveal that Cohen and Trump blundered into campaign finance law violations when they bribed Daniels to keep quiet.  I’d love to see the courts void the clumsy non-disclosure agreements that have kept Trump’s legion of temporary paramours from telling their stories. 

My interest in the details of Trump’s sex life is, as pundit Elvis Costello put it, less than zero.  But the more we learn about Trump’s treatment of women – his mistresses as well as his current wife – the more likely it is that some small percentage of his support will erode. 

Every little bit will help in November 2018.

LIVING IS EASY WITH EYES CLOSED

Donald Trump drives good people crazy.  This is known.  Apparently he also drives bad people crazy.  How else can we account for Roseanne Barr’s bizarre Friday tweet?  If you haven’t seen it, brace yourself.  She wrote:

“President Trump has freed so many children held in bondage to pimps all over this world.  Hundreds each month.  He has broken up trafficking rings in high places everywhere.  notice that.  I disagree on some things, but give him the benefit of the doubt-4 now.”

WTF? 

In an effort to decipher Roseanne’s message, your humble reporter has boldly ascended the mountains of madness.   Apparently there’s this thing called 4Chan, and another thing called 8Chan.  Maybe there’ll be a 16chan soon.  These “chan” things are internet sites comparable to the wild west of the 19th century, where there’s no law west of the virtual Pecos, and pretty much anything goes.  They are where Trump fans gather to fantasize about their glorious leader when they need something stronger than Fox News.  Donald Trump’s grip on reality is tenuous anyway, and apparently he’s taking his more gullible fans down the rabbit hole with him.

Someone known as QAnon is one of these fantasists, and he (and his followers) make shit up.  The most likely scenario is that he’s a troll, writing fan fiction for unstable people like Roseanne Barr.  Fanfic, as it’s called, is a literary genre in which obsessed fans of certain books or films (e.g. Game of Thrones, Harry Potter, Star Trek or Star Wars) take those fictional worlds and make up their own stories about the characters.

QAnon writes fanfic set in a fake news universe in which Donald Trump is a conquering hero rather than a bumbling idiot.  QAnon calls his universe THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM, or THE STORM for short.  In QAnon’s bizarro world, Robert Mueller is actually investigating Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.  It was Clinton and Obama, you see, who were really working for Vladimir Putin.  And Donald Trump, who in real life famously barged into the dressing room of teenage beauty contestants and fantasized aloud about having sex with his daughter, is a hero who brings child molesters to justice. 

In THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM, up is down, black is white, and we have always been at war with Oceania.  Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.

A storm is gathering all right, but it’s not the one that Trump fantasists are hoping for.  Robert Mueller is coming for Donald Trump.  So is Stormy Daniels.  So, indirectly, are Emma Gonzalez and her classmates at Stoneman Douglas. 

When a bunch of high school students, a porn star, and a straitlaced former Marine have you backed into a corner, you might as well retreat into a fantasy world, whether it’s the one constructed by Fox News, or one built by QAnon and his friends.  But it’s scary to think about how these people will react when Trump’s day of reckoning comes.    

Thus it is that Trump and his fans are dead to the irony of his Friday proclamation naming April as National Sexual Assault and Prevention Month. 

Perhaps he’ll name May as National Collusion Awareness and Prevention Month.  June could be National Fuck the NRA Month.  And with any luck, November will be National Republicans Are Screwed Month.  Let’s make it happen!

SEND LAWYERS, GUNS, AND MONEY

When I was five or six years old, my parents gave me my first allowance – 25 cents a week.  If memory serves, I spent most of it on bubblegum cards – mostly sports cards, but also the Topps Wings series, which featured military aircraft from the Korean War era.  The image that accompanies this post, the Lockheed F-94, comes from that series.

On Thursday, Donald Trump introduced the CEO of Lockheed Martin, Marillyn Hewson, as Marillyn Lockheed.  "We buy billions and billions of dollars worth of that beautiful F-35,” he said.  “It's stealth. You cannot see it. Is that correct? It better be correct." 

There’s an interesting philosophical conundrum in Trump’s statement.  Can an object be both beautiful and invisible?  Beauty, of course, is in the eye of the beholder.  But how can we form aesthetic opinions about objects that can’t be beheld?  Indeed, are such things objects at all? 

Before we go too far down that particular rabbit hole, it’s best to remember that Donald Trump is a blithering idiot.  Stealth doesn’t mean invisible, despite Trump’s threat.  You can google “Lockheed F-35” and decide for yourself whether it’s beautiful.  This particular beholder prefers the design of the F-94, but that’s probably just nostalgia talking.

Meanwhile, there has been more turnover in Trump’s White House.  His lead attorney for the Mueller investigation has resigned, as has his National Security Director. 

On the first matter, I was one of a multitude who predicted that attorney John Dowd was heading for the door.  When your client is both guilty and stupid, there’s not a whole lot that you can do except bow out as gracefully as possible.  Dowd’s replacement, Joseph DiGenova, is a veteran of the Bill Clinton impeachment wars.  Twenty years ago, he argued that a sitting president could be indicted.  I’m sure he’s a man of principle and will continue to maintain that position now that he’s representing Donald Trump.

H.R. McMaster’s departure is also no surprise.  Alas, neither is his replacement, John Bolton, a man who never met a war he didn’t like.  Bolton also perjured himself in Senate testimony in 2005, but perjury is almost a prerequisite for service in the Trump administration.  Congressional Republicans, who are well practiced in the art of looking the other way, won’t hold that against him.  Donald Trump was initially put off by Bolton’s moustache, but allegations that he forced his first wife to participate in orgies more than made up for his unfortunate facial hair.  It’s the little things that count when you’re committed to hiring the best and brightest. 

What do these things add up to?  The change of attorneys won’t make much difference.  DiGenova will be more inclined to support Trump’s worst instincts, which will likely lead to worse trouble for his client down the road.   Mueller still holds all the cards, and if Trump is dumb enough to fire him, and/or to begin issuing pardons, I’m confident that there are backup plans in place to deal with that possibility.

Bolton is the guy to worry about.  He’s one of those G.W. Bush era “experts” who will tell Trump what he wants to hear, which is that we can attack Iran or North Korea and win a quick, clean victory.  Hey, it worked in Iraq, right?

All we can do is keep our eyes on the prize, which is the 2018 congressional elections.  Flipping the House looks doable.  The Senate will be more challenging, but it's not outside the realm of possibility.  In the meantime, root for Stormy Daniels and her lawyer, and pray that we make it through the rest of the year without a war.

 

AND BEWILDERED BY THE THINGS WE SEE

If you’re interested in hearing a national security law expert talk about why Donald Trump should worry about both Stormy Daniels and Paul Manafort (separately, alas, although they’d make a good team), check out this fascinating podcast from Josh Marshall, with his guest Asha Rangappa, former FBI special agent and currently a lecturer at Yale, where she teaches national security law. 

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/podcasts/the-josh-marshall-podcast/ep-5-why-manafort-is-key-to-the-trump-russia-story

WHY DO WE NEVER GET AN ANSWER WHEN WE'RE KNOCKING AT THE DOOR

I married fairly late in life.  Fortunately, I was lucky.  Recognizing the role that luck plays in the life of a marriage, I will resist the urge to take pleasure in the news that Vanessa Trump has filed for divorce from Donald Trump Jr.  I will admit, however, that the fact that she hired a criminal lawyer makes it more difficult to avoid schadenfreude.  I can’t help but wonder if Vanessa wants out of the marriage right now because she has reason to believe that there’s an asset forfeiture conviction in Don Jr’s future. 

I haven’t used this maxim in several months, but it’s truer than ever – everything Trump touches turns to shit.  I wonder how many Trump marriages will survive this presidency.  If you were betting on the next Trump divorce, though, the best odds would probably be on the POTUS and FLOTUS. 

Word on the street is that the Trumps intended to divorce in 2016.  Melania had done her duty as a trophy wife, but after eleven years, she was getting a bit long in the tooth.  Allegedly, she and Donald had a pre-nuptial agreement, a non-disclosure agreement, and were planning to file right after Trump lost the election.  And then disaster struck – for Melania, as well as for the entire country.  This scenario would certainly explain Melania’s sour look in so many photos over the past fifteen months. 

Then, as if the normal FLOTUS obligations weren’t enough, the Stormy Daniels story broke last month.  Daniels has treated Trump like Trump treats everyone else.  She and her attorney, Michael Avenatti, are playing Trump like a fiddle, dropping new hints and allegations every couple of days.  Does Donald Trump like to be spanked?  Did he maintain contact with Stormy even after he moved into the White House?  How many other women did Trump cheat with? 

Avenatti told CNN’s Anderson Cooper that six additional women have contacted him with stories similar to the one Stormy tells about Donald Trump.  He noted that those stories haven’t been vetted yet, but in Trumpworld, that doesn’t matter.  Whoever these women are, they’re now a part of the Trump narrative, just like his boasts about lying to Justin Trudeau and his crazy story about Japanese auto manufacturers using a bowling ball to test the durability of cars.

But I digress.  I was talking about adultery.  As of mid-March, we know about Trump’s adulterous relationships with Stormy Daniels, with 1998 Playmate of the Year Karen McDougal, and with Avenatti’s six anonymous women.  Now we’re up to eight adulterous affairs during Trump’s third marriage.  The Rev. Franklin Graham will have to work overtime at the mulligan factory to keep up with these new revelations.

On the one hand, it’s hard to imagine that Melania was surprised by her husband’s infidelity, or even that she cared much.  She knew what she was getting into when she married Trump, except for the part about having to be First Lady. On the other hand, it can’t be pleasant to have your husband’s affairs rubbed in your face on a daily basis, especially if you’d expected to be a free woman by now.

Maybe as a part of Donald Trump’s spring White House personnel shakeup, he’ll let Melania go as well.  She’d probably be grateful.

While Trump doesn’t want to talk about Stormy Daniels, he’s decided it’s time to talk about Robert Mueller.  For the first time in memory, he used Mueller’s name in a tweet: “Why does the Mueller team have 13 hardened Democrats, some big Crooked Hillary supporters, and Zero Republicans? Another Dem recently added...does anyone think this is fair? And yet, there is NO COLLUSION!” 

Donald Trump wants answers, and I’m here to help.  Let’s analyze that tweet.

I’m not sure what a “hardened Democrat” is.  It sounds kind of Freudian, especially coming from Trump.  But he’s wrong about there being “Zero” Republicans on the Special Counsel’s team.  You know who’s a Republican?  Robert Mueller, that’s who.  The decorated Marine, career FBI man, and Republican.  The same Republican Robert Mueller who was appointed by Republican Rod Rosenstein, who was in turn appointed by Republican Donald J. Trump.  For a full rundown on Mueller’s team and their political affiliations, see the link below.

Next, Trump asks if anyone thinks this is fair?  The answer to that is yes.  I think it’s fair.  And I’m not the only one.  As the Washington Post notes, “The special counsel team is composed of veteran white-collar lawyers and prosecutors who are among the most respected in the legal world. They have a broad range of experience in fraud, public corruption, cyber and terrorism cases. Legal analysts have said previously that they could see no significant legal or ethical concerns with the team members' political giving, and they noted that Justice Department policies prohibit discrimination in hiring for career positions on the basis of politics.” 

Trump closes his tweet with “there is NO COLLUSION!”  I say BULLSHIT.  There was obvious collusion, including a public statement from Donald Trump, Jared’s attempts to establish backchannel communications, and Don Jr’s emails – all matters of public record.  As if that weren’t enough, for crying out loud, Mueller has already obtained guilty pleas from members of the Trump campaign.  

Beyond that, in using the word “collusion” (even in all caps), Trump is employing a semantic dodge.  “Collusion” isn’t a legal term for the purposes of this investigation.  Mueller’s team is trying to determine whether the Trump campaign received any illegal foreign donations of money and/or services, and whether anyone from his campaign or one of his businesses collaborated with Russians during the election.  The answer is almost certainly yes.   

With “COLLUSION” being pretty much a done deal, we should also turn to the other main focus of Mueller’s investigation, which Trump conveniently avoids mentioning – obstruction of justice.  Evidence for obstruction includes: Trump asking James Comey to drop his investigation of Mike Flynn, firing Comey when he refused, bragging to Russian agents that he fired Comey to take pressure off the “Russia thing,” helping Don Jr. lie about his meeting with Russian agents, publicly shaming his Attorney General for refusing to fire Mueller, and tweeting a continuous barrage of demonstrably false statements about the Special Counsel’s investigation. 

Frankly, WHAT Trump and his minions did is pretty obvious.  They’re not very bright, and they left a trail of clues that was easy to follow.  My sense is that Mueller has largely wrapped up the WHAT part of his investigation and is now focused on WHY they did it, and why Trump has tried so hard to stop the investigation. 

As I understand it, in order to bring a successful obstruction of justice case, Mueller has to provide evidence that Trump knew that his actions were wrong or illegal.  That’s why the Trump Organization’s financial records are relevant.  That may not be where the answer lies, but Mueller has to check.  Checking takes time.  I’m as anxious as anyone for more indictments, but I trust Mueller. 

Now that I’ve answered Donald Trump’s two questions, I have a couple of my own. 

If you don’t believe that the evidence shows that Trump was attempting to obstruct justice, tell me this.  If he were trying to obstruct justice, what would he do differently?

If Trump is innocent, why does he act so guilty?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2018/03/18/trump-said-muellers-team-has-13-hardened-democrats-here-are-the-facts/?utm_term=.097887b3a113  

SOMEONE'S GOT IT IN FOR ME, THEY'RE PLANTING STORIES IN THE PRESS

I like humor as much as the next fellow, but I’ve never been all that fond of jokes.  Recent events, however, have reminded me of a now-obscure genre of jokes from my childhood – the “little moron” joke.  (An example: Why did the little moron take a ladder to the tavern?  Because he’d heard that the beer was on the house.)

Rex Tillerson was arguably the worst Secretary of State in the past hundred years.  History will likely give him credit for only one positive achievement during his year in office – calling Donald Trump a moron.  That was last July.  It took Mr. “You’re Fired” eight months to work up the nerve to fire an incompetent subordinate who called him a moron.

There is a growing consensus that Trump has decided he’s sick and tired of his minions challenging his opinions.  He’s ready to replace all of the independent voices on his leadership team with sycophants and courtiers who either agree with him or will pretend to agree with him in order to win a seat near the Sun King.  The New York Times put it more politely: “After a year of chaotic on-the-job training, Mr. Trump has developed more confidence in his own instincts and wants aides and cabinet members with whom he has good chemistry and who embrace his positions.”

In other words, expect to see an influx of Fox News talking heads and other conservative media personalities.  It would be particularly worrisome if Trump replaced his only two competent appointees.  H.R. McMaster (Director of National Security) and Jim Mattis (Secretary of Defense) have functioned as the adults in the room for the past year.  If Trump fires them, their replacements will probably be war criminals from the Bush era, the geniuses responsible for the Iraq War.  There are a lot of those folks still around, and they haven’t learned from their mistakes.  They’re itching to start a war somewhere, anywhere, that they can finally win. 

In all likelihood, Jeff Sessions will be gone soon.  Sessions is a singularly unlikeable character who will go down in history as one of our worst Attorney Generals, although Richard Nixon’s AG’s set a very high bar for corruption and criminality.  Like Tillerson, Sessions will be remembered as a man who did exactly one thing right.  He recused himself from the investigation into Russiagate and withstood intense pressure from his boss to put an end to the Mueller investigation.  His replacement will have no such compunctions.  If Sessions is kicked to the curb, Mueller’s days are numbered. 

Until then, though, the Special Counsel just keeps on doing his job and ignoring attempts to intimidate him.  On Thursday, the New York Times reported that Mueller has subpoenaed records from the Trump Organization – the business, not the campaign.  It wasn’t a simple request: “Hey, when you get a minute, would you mind turning over, like, all your records pertaining to Russia?”  Instead, they opted for a legal demand.  I interpret that as a signal from Mueller that he’s ready to play hardball.    

Trump fans will surely complain that this subpoena proves that Mueller is engaging in mission creep.  What, they’ll ask, do Trump’s business records have to do with Russian interference in the 2016 election?  Here are a couple of possibilities.  Maybe Mueller is looking for evidence that the Trump Organization collaborated with Russia on behalf of the Trump campaign.  Or maybe the issue isn’t collaboration, but obstruction of justice.  Why has Trump been so eager to shut down the Russiagate investigation?  Are there clues in his financial records?  Donald Trump is not a great compartmentalizer.  Neither he nor his family separate their business interests from their political interests.  Mueller would be remiss if he failed to look for evidence in such an obvious place.

In addition to the ongoing purge in the politburo, there’s another exodus from the White House in progress.  That one involves Trump loyalists with legal issues hanging over their heads, or maybe a history of infidelity, spousal abuse, or garden variety racism.  Is it fair to disqualify job seekers for doing exactly what their prospective boss has done all his life?

Donald Trump doesn’t think so.  Most of the folks in the second exodus will stay on the payroll as members of the Trump 2020 presidential campaign.  Rumor has it that Jared and Ivanka are headed that way.  Trump obviously enjoys campaigning more than presidenting, so maybe the second group of exiles are the lucky ones. 

I BARGAINED FOR SALVATION AND SHE GAVE ME A LETHAL DOSE

Republicans are notoriously hypocritical about sex.  They say they want to stop abortions, but most of them refuse to support the most effective method of reducing abortions, which is effective contraception.  They obsess over the sex lives of Bill and Hillary Clinton, but when one of their own (e.g. Newt Gingrich, Bill O’Reilly, Bristol Palin, Donald J. Trump) strays, they’ll either look the other way, or invoke the power of God’s redeeming love for members of the GOP (Grand Old Pussy-grabbers). 

How convenient for Republicans that GOP Jesus is always willing to cut his chosen people some slack when it comes to sins of the flesh.

That’s why, when the Stormy Daniels story broke, I thought it would blow over quickly.  In fact, I thought the whole episode might even enhance Trump’s reputation among the male members of his evangelical base, many of whom probably entertain fantasies of living the life Trump brags about.  Sin now, repent later, and resume moralizing.

But as time has passed, it’s clear that the Trump camp has been thrown off balance by Daniels and her attorney.  His propagandists are having trouble finding an effective way to attack her.  They tried ignoring her, but she refused to go away.  They can’t call her a liar, since it seems clear that she’s telling the truth about her affair with Trump.  They can’t even figure out how to insult her, because she’s more or less shameless.  As she says, “There's nothing that anyone can say that I haven't heard. So, they say, 'Hey, you're a whore ...' I'm like, 'That's 'successful whore' to you!'”  

The more we learn about the $130,000 payoff, the worse it looks.  Team Trump can’t even do a simple bribe correctly.   And the non-disclosure agreement mentions “certain still images and/or text messages” from Donald Trump.  I’ll leave the nature of those images to your imagination.

Now comes the news that Daniels has recorded an extensive interview with 60 MINUTES.  Trump’s lawyers are trying to stop CBS from airing the interview, but given the extremely high bar the Supreme Court has set for prior restraint (immediate, irreparable harm to the nation), they don’t appear to have much leverage.  It’s not illegal to embarrass the president. 

I have written that Vladimir Putin was the only person Donald Trump refused to criticize.  Who’d have guessed that the second member of that exclusive club would be a porn star? 

We have a general idea of the nature of Putin’s leverage over Trump.  At a minimum, Putin knows about the Trump family’s shady business practices with Russian oligarchs, and about the Trump campaign’s collaboration with Russian hackers to rig the 2016 election.

Stormy Daniels’ information is presumably of a more personal nature.  Trump’s $130,000 bought him secrecy for a year and kept the scandal out of the news long enough for him to eke out a win in the Electoral College.  You could say it was money well spent.  But sooner or later, we’ll find out what Daniels knows, and we’ll see how the public reacts.

In related news, Billy Graham died last month at the age of 99.  When I was a kid, Graham was by far the best-known protestant minister in the country.  I used to watch his televised crusades back in the 1950s.  He prayed with, and for, presidents from both parties, and was famous for insisting that his rallies be open to people of all races.  At the end of his life, he was said to be blind and deaf.  He may not have known that his son, Franklin Graham, was one of Donald J. Trump’s primary enablers. 

When asked about Stormy Daniels, Franklin Graham publicly gave Trump “a mulligan” on his pre-presidential adultery.  I don’t know who gave Graham the authority to issue mulligans, but leaving that aside, his rationale was that Trump hasn’t “sinned” since he’s been president.  Graham seems to have a special version of the Bible in which the Ten Commandments are replaced with One Commandment (about sex) plus nine recommendations.  That allows him to overlook (for example) Trump’s constant lying. 

But let’s set those other “thou shalt nots” aside and just talk about adultery.  Here’s a question for Trump’s evangelical apologists.  What are the odds that he cheated on Melania only with Stormy Daniels?  Would evidence of additional adulterous affairs cause you to rethink your support for the Adulterer in Chief?  

Because there’s already evidence of a second affair, with the 1998 Playmate of the Year, Karen McDougal, shortly after Melania gave birth to Barron.  How many more adulterous affairs will it take before you say “enough”?

My guess is that most evangelicals will keep giving Trump mulligans.  In fact, Robert Jeffress, pastor of the famous “First Baptist Church of Dallas” megachurch, has already issued a universal pre-emptive mulligan for every sin in the book.   “I’m his friend,” Jeffress said. “I will never walk away.”

Stay classy, evangelicals.

THE AUDACITY OF HOPE

At a dinner with friends recently, a couple of people mentioned that they’d never heard of Hope Hicks before last month, and they wondered how a Trump insider had kept such a low profile.  Here’s my theory.  Word on the street is that Hope Hicks was a prolific leaker, supplying various journalists with inside information about White House intrigue.  Unlike most White House leakers, however, she had no personal agenda. 

Instead, Hicks was an ally of Ivanka and Jared.  Her leaks were aimed at discrediting their enemies – primarily Steve Bannon and his allies – rather than enhancing her own reputation.  That made it hard for outsiders to guess where the leaks were coming from, especially since Bannon had a lot of enemies in the White House.  Reporters protected her identity because they valued her as a source of inside information.  And her low-profile work on behalf of Ivanka and Jared kept her in Trump’s good graces.

Hicks’ profile rose considerably in February, when her then-boyfriend, Rob Porter, was outed as a serial wife-beater.  It’s reasonable to wonder whether that particular leak was designed to protect Hicks, or to erode her anonymity and thus weaken Ivanka and Jared.    

Working in the Trump White House isn’t easy, as evidenced by the constant turnover of staff.  When Hicks announced her resignation, she said it was something that she’d been planning for a long time.  Maybe so.  But my guess is that the tipping point came last December (which in Trump terms is a long time ago), after she’d spent two days answering questions for Robert Mueller’s investigators.  It must have been clear to her then that her legal position was precarious at best.  She either gave evidence against Donald Trump or perjured herself.

But it was her testimony before the House Intelligence Committee that finally did her in.  That hearing was supposed to be confidential, but Devin Nunes’ clown car can’t keep secrets.  Someone in the room leaked the information that Hicks admitted that she told occasional “white lies” on Trump’s behalf.  Boom!  Trump lost his temper, and Hicks submitted her resignation.   

Then came another leak, thus far unconfirmed.  A “White House insider” told the DAILY MAIL that Hicks kept a detailed diary of her interactions with Donald Trump.  If that’s true, it was probably help her land a book deal once she returned to civilian life.  But Norm Eisen, Special Counsel for Ethics and Government Reform under President Obama, says that any such diary or journal would, per the Presidential Records Act, belong to the government.  She couldn’t legally destroy it, nor could she deny Mueller’s team access to it.

Speaking of leaks and the leaking leakers that leak them, remember that Mueller doesn’t play that game. Mike Allen in AXIOS made an important observation on that point (link below).  When you read stories about what Mueller and his team are doing, such as who they’re interviewing and the focus of the questions they’re asking, you should assume that those leaks came from people who’d been subpoenaed to testify, either as suspects, witnesses, or both. 

Why would suspects, potential or actual, want that information made public?  The theory I find most persuasive is that they’re trying to provoke Donald Trump.  They’re hoping to make him mad enough to fire Mueller and stop the investigation, and/or to make him worried enough about the incriminating information in Mueller’s possession that he’ll begin issuing pardons.

It’s a persuasive theory because such a strategy could work.  The mad king is easily provoked.  Luckily for us (not to mention for truth, justice, and the American way), Trump’s reaction to provocation is invariably short-sighted and ultimately self-defeating.

https://www.axios.com/mueller-russia-probe-update-stories-2dc74bfd-ddae-4c48-b66f-9873be82945d.html

I WAS BORN WITH A CURIOUS MIND

I JUST COULDN’T HELP MYSELF, ‘CAUSE I WAS BORN WITH A CURIOUS MIND:  Donald Trump, normally incurious about the details of his own administration, suddenly has a few questions.  For instance, “Why is A.G. Jeff Sessions asking the Inspector General to investigate potentially massive FISA abuse. Will take forever, has no prosecutorial power and already late with reports on Comey etc. Isn’t the I.G. an Obama guy? Why not use Justice Department lawyers? DISGRACEFUL!”

I expected Sessions to keep his head down, but he issued what was for him defiant response later in the day, basically daring Trump to fire him.  One of the strangest aspects of Trump’s presidency is that, for all his bluster, he appears to be so uncomfortable with personal confrontation that he can’t bring himself to fire subordinates he clearly wishes were gone.

The best part of this public feud between Trump and his Attorney General is that it hasn’t even been the strangest story of the week. 

After a period of uncharacteristic quiet, Trump launched a barrage of tweets early Tuesday morning, ending with “WITCH HUNT!”  Goodman Mueller is preparing the dunking chair, and Trump is clearly spooked.

Trump’s weekly series of unfortunate events continued as Mueller dropped the most recent charges against Rick Gates.  That can only mean that Gates is telling everything he knows about Paul Manafort – and Donald Trump.  

Meanwhile, John Kelly FINALLY lowered the boom on doofus-in-law Jared Kushner, taking away his top secret security clearance.  The Washington Post reports that the intelligence community has intercepted conversations between officials in four separate countries (the United Arab Emirates, Mexico, Israel, and China) indicating that they believe Kushner can be bribed, or at least manipulated.

Why might they have formed that opinion?  Kushner is way over his head in debt.  He owes various lending institutions $1.2 billion, mostly because he badly overpaid for a property at 666 Fifth Avenue in Manhattan.  Hey, who among us hasn’t spent an extra half-billion on something we couldn’t really afford?  Now Robert Mueller is investigating Kushner’s finances.  Because what self-respecting witch hunter wouldn’t take an interest in a man who bought a property bearing the Mark of the Beast?

You have to wonder how much of Kushner’s diplomacy-related travel last year was actually spent trying to borrow money.  Let the word go forth – any country with deep pockets and an interest in cultivating influence with the current occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue has a potential friend in Jared Kushner.

One of the interesting common denominators among people in Trump’s orbit is a tendency to acquire massive debt.  As private citizens, that would be between them and their creditors.  As elected officials, it makes them targets for bribery, blackmail, or more subtle forms of persuasion. 

Paul Manafort, for instance, latched onto Trump in the first place because he owed millions to pro-Russian oligarchs in Ukraine.  It’s an open question whether it was Manafort’s own idea to approach Trump with an offer to work for free, or whether one of the oligarchs suggested that he could return to their good graces if he were able to persuade Trump to do a favor or two for Russian interests.  One way or the other, those favors were done.

In the Watergate scandal, Deep Throat told Woodward and Bernstein to “follow the money.”  Late last year, Robert Mueller turned his attention to Deutsche Bank (DB).  Donald Trump is reported to owe Deutsche Bank $364 million, which also holds a big chunk of Jared Kushner’s debt. 

Deutsche Bank isn’t your normal lending institution.  One of its former employees told a reporter from the NEW YORKER that “Deutsche Bank was structurally designed by management to allow corrupt individuals to commit fraud.”  In the past ten years, they’ve paid over $9 billion in fines for various financial crimes.  Their specialty appears to be helping Russian oligarchs move large sums of money outside Russia, via a practice called “mirror trading.”  First you buy stock in a Russian company with rubles, and then immediately sell that stock on a western stock exchange.  Voila, your rubles are now dollars or Euros, which you can then transfer to a private account in an offshore tax haven. 

So Donald Trump and Jared Kushner are deeply in debt to a foreign bank that appears to be a money laundering front for Russian criminals.  Might that be one motive for Trump’s refusal to implement congressionally approved sanctions against Russia?

On another Russiagate front, NBC reports that Mueller has been asking members of the Trump campaign whether Trump himself knew about the DNC server hack before it became public.  Pro tip of the day: If you’re ever called to testify at a Mueller inquiry, it would be smart to assume that he already knows the answer to the questions he asks.  The purpose of the question is to find out if you’re a liar.  It would be smart not to lie.

I would be remiss not to mention a couple of other bizarre events from the end of February.  On the international scene, there’s an armed standoff at a Trump hotel in Panama, while in Thailand there’s a Russian model/sex worker (currently incarcerated) who claims she can verify the famous “pee tape” if only someone will get her out of jail.  This kind of news is a refreshing change from the sordid tales of President Obama putting his feet up on the desk in the Oval Office.

The first half of the week ended with the audacity of hope – Hope Hicks, that is, who announced her impending resignation after admitting that she told an occasional white lie for her boss.  The White House will need a new Communications Director soon, as well as a pants steamer for Donald Trump, which is a real job that Hope Hicks did. 

I don’t know what  kind of communications director that Russian lady in Thailand would make, but she could probably steam Trump’s pants real good.

DAN WILSON, RIP

A friend of mine died earlier this month, and I want to pay my respects here.  If it hadn’t been for him, this blog probably wouldn’t exist.

Dan Wilson was my age.  Technically, he was 8 months younger than me, but when you reach a certain age, a few months either way is a meaningless distinction.  Our paths finally crossed about fifteen years ago, as students at Yoga Oasis.  We were regulars in two or three YO classes, but the one I remember best was Mira Shani’s Saturday morning 8:30 class at YO Central.    

Time passed, and Mira talked me into becoming a yoga teacher.  That was in 2009; a year and a half later, Mira left town, and I was teaching at Three Jewels on Sixth Street.  By 2012, my wife and I were running Three Jewels Tucson, and I’d drifted away from Yoga Oasis.  Sometime around then, Dan had open heart surgery, which limited his asana practice. 

Vicki and I would occasionally go out to dinner with Dan and his wife Yvette, and he was also a supporter of Artifact Dance Company, whose board of directors my wife serves on.  But my main contact with Dan soon became his blog, THIS JUST IN.  He wrote movingly about his struggle to escape his father’s legacy, and his determination to set a good example for his nephews.  He was remarkably candid about his perceived shortcomings, and also about his desire to make the world a better place. 

I would sometimes offer comments on his blog entries, and Dan was kind enough to invite me to write occasional guest posts.  That experience gave me the confidence, a few years later, to start a blog of my own.

Dan was respected and admired at Yoga Oasis, by teachers as well as his fellow students.  It iss obvious from comments on his Facebook page that he had friends and admirers from all walks of life.  He was a good man.  I will miss him.

SMOKE GETS IN YOUR EYES

What a week.  Robert Mueller filed 32 more charges against Rick Gates and Paul Manafort.  These charges were handed down by a different grand jury in a different jurisdiction (Eastern District of Virginia rather than District of Columbia), and cover a new set of crimes.  I’ve seen reports of money laundering ranging from $30-75 million, a tidy sum, even on the low end.  And the charges include conspiracy against the United States.  Hold that thought.

Team Trump pooh-poohed the first Manafort/Gates indictments last October because the alleged crimes took place before Manafort began working for Trump.  The new indictments bring things up to date, alleging various forms of fraud that took place during and after Manafort’s stint as Trump’s campaign manager, even as recently as January, 2017.

Meanwhile, Rick Gates was dithering about whether to take a plea bargain from Robert Mueller.  I find it hard to believe that anyone could be this dumb, but some sources say Gates held out hope that the Nunes Memo would lead to the collapse of Mueller’s entire investigation.  On February 1, the day before The Memo was released to the public, Gates met with prosecutors to discuss a plea deal – and lied to them.  He lied to them about a meeting between Manafort and Republicans Dana Rohrabacher and Vin Weber in 2013 about lobbying for Ukraine.  Rohrabacher is the congressman that even Republican leadership knew was on Putin’s payroll. 

The truth will out, and The Memo laid an egg.  Three weeks and 32 indictments later, Gates decided that discretion was the better part of valor.

As the press tries to make sense of all this, there’s a segment of DC punditry (notably Blake Hounshell of Politico, who proclaimed himself a “Russiagate Skeptic”) that has opted for a contrarian position.  They profess to believe that Mueller will never find a smoking gun, which they define as a piece of evidence that will uncontrovertibly satisfy them that Donald Trump worked with Vladimir Putin to hijack the presidential election. 

Oh, Hounshell acknowledges that there’s plenty of smoke.  He just professes to be agnostic about where it came from.  He doesn’t dispute that there was collusion between Russia and people in Trump’s campaign; or that the collusion was extensive enough to involve members of the Trump family.  He acknowledges that Robert Mueller has gotten guilty pleas and will likely get more. 

He’s just decided that unless Mueller can find a written agreement between Trump and Putin, or its audio or video equivalent, none of the rest of the evidence matters much.  Josh Marshall wrote an excellent takedown of Hounshell’s position, which I won’t repeat here.  I’m including links to both essays at the end of this post. 

Russiagate skeptics don’t like to come right out and say it, but their position is this.  Even if Mueller were to secure guilty pleas and/or convictions against a long list of Trump associates (including his campaign manager, his National Security Director, his son, and his son-in-law/closest advisor) on charges of conspiracy against the United States, in the form of working with Russians to influence the outcome of the election in Trump’s favor – that still wouldn’t be enough to convince them that Trump himself was involved in the conspiracy.  In their eyes, Trump apparently had nothing to do with anything his employees and family did during the campaign.

Not only that, but they’re willing to ignore other critical pieces of context.  For them, Trump’s campaign speech (“Russia, if you’re listening”) in which he publicly sought Russian help in hacking Hilary Clinton’s servers, is apparently unrelated to Mueller’s investigation.  And that memo Trump wrote for Don, Jr., in which he lied about the reason for Junior’s meeting with Russian spies in June, 2016, also has nothing to do with Russian election interference.  As far as they’re concerned, the whole Comey firing had nothing to do with trying to stop Mueller’s investigation – notwithstanding the fact that Trump asked Comey to drop the investigation of Mike Flynn, fired him when he refused, and then bragged to a couple of Russians that the reason he fired Comey was to get rid of the pressure from the “Russia thing.”  Nothing suspicious about that, not at all.

For Russiagate skeptics, those are just random pieces of information.  Nothing seems to add up.  If only there were some really persuasive evidence.  

My guess is that Hounshell knows better, and was just writing a clickbait article.  Other Russiagate skeptics are simply Republican propagandists.  But setting an absurdly high bar for proof of Trump’s personal involvement in Russiagate is exactly what Trump’s own attorneys will do at some point.  It’s a last ditch defense, and the fact Trump sympathizers are already trotting it out makes me wonder if the endgame is closer than we suspect.

As John Heywood wrote in 1546: “Who is so deaf or so blind as he, that willfully will neither hear nor see.”  Or, as the Platters put it in 1958, “When a lonely flame dies, smoke gets in your eyes.”

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/02/18/confessions-of-a-russiagate-skeptic-217024

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/why-the-trump-russia-skeptics-are-wrong

DEAR OLD GOLDEN RULE DAYS

DEAR OLD GOLDEN RULE DAYS: “Welcome, freshmen, to Orientation Week at Smith & Wesson High School.  Look at the student on your left.  Now look at the student your right.  Statistics say that one out of every three Smith & Wesson students will be murdered before the end of the school year.  Don’t be that guy!”

“Orientation Week will teach you survival skills – both offensive and defensive – that will increase your odds of getting through your freshman year.  You’ll learn how to handle hostage situations; when to shoot first and ask questions later; how to use an active shooter’s suicidal tendencies against him; and on Friday, we’ll finish the week by practicing small unit combat tactics.  Remember – we’re stronger together.  Now, hands over the heart as we recite the Second Amendment.”

When I was a teenager, the bad boys were the ones who chewed gum, or didn’t tuck their shirttails in.  Do either, or both, often enough, and you’d get kicked out of school, and into a life of….  Well, I don’t know what.  Insubordination rarely progressed that far at my high school.  The leather jacket set would occasionally get into testosterone-fueled fights – fist fights – and get suspended for a week.  But they’d always be back.  That was life on the mean streets of Wichita, Kansas, back in the early 60s.

Sometime when I was in high school, I read Robert A. Heinlein’s science fiction novel, BEYOND THIS HORIZON, in which he said, “An armed society is a polite society.”  It didn’t make that much of an impression on me back then, because Heinlein’s novels were full of similarly bombastic quotes.  But it became an article of faith for Gundamentalists, notwithstanding the fact that the past twenty years of American history have proved it to be bullshit.  Not only that, but 2A fanatics are among the rudest people I’ve encountered. 

The NRA hasn’t repudiated Heinlein, but they’re no longer claiming that there’s a correlation between firepower and politesse.  No, their current slogan assumes that Thomas Hobbes had it right.  Life in contemporary America is nasty, brutish, and short, and “the only way to stop a bad guy with a gun is with a good guy with a gun.” 

Hobbes, of course, wrote “Life in a state of nature,” rather than “life in contemporary America.”  But in terms of guns, contemporary America lives for all practical purposes in a Hobbesian state of nature, with “no law, no common power to restrain human nature.” That’s what today’s NRA wants – a LORD OF THE FLIES society where your only chance for survival is to outgun your enemies. 

How did an organization founded to promote marksmanship and responsible use of firearms by hunters and outdoorsmen turn into a domestic terrorist organization?  Basically, there was a coup in 1977, and the gun nuts won.  They’ve had 40 years to learn how to manipulate their members’ anxiety over social change.  Give the devil his due – they’re good at it.

According to a Pew Research study last year (link below), about 30% of Americans are gun owners.  I thought the number would be higher.  Only 19% of gun owners belong to the NRA.  I thought that number would be higher.  So basically, 6% of Americans are NRA members.  That’s a non-trivial number, but it doesn’t represent an insurmountable obstacle.

All this by way of saying bravo to Emma Gonzalez and the other protestors from Stoneman Douglas High in Parkland FL.  They’re calling bullshit on the NRA and its elected lapdogs.  I don’t know whether they’ll “win,” but they’re moving the needle. 

Republicans were taken aback when a bunch of kids dared to call them out.  Some dumb politicians and commentators (looking at you, Ted Nugent and Dana Loesch) even lashed out, attacking teen survivors.  That’s going to backfire in a big way.  The rest of them are scrambling to find the right script, complete with proposals for serious-sounding but deliberately ineffective legislation, that will cover their asses at least temporarily. 

My guess is that Emma Gonzalez and her friends won’t be fooled.  And when the next school massacres happen (I’m sorry to say that I believe there will be more), students at those schools will have the Stoneman Douglas example to use as a model for their own protests. 

I think the genie is out of the bottle.  The NRA can bully politicians, but they can’t bully a bunch of high school kids.  Dudes, your sons and your daughters are beyond your command.  There’s a battle outside, and it’s ragin’.  Emma Gonzalez may never have heard that song, but she’s living out its truth.  Long may she run.

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/07/05/among-gun-owners-nra-members-have-a-unique-set-of-views-and-experiences/

WOULD YOU LIKE TO BE QUEEN FOR A DAY?

Back in the 1950s, there was a cringe-worthy daytime TV show called Queen For A Day, in which desperate housewives would tell stories of hard luck, and the studio audience would vote on which one was most deserving of a new refrigerator, or a few hundred dollars. 

Apparently, federal prosecutors now offer what they call “queen for a day interviews” to accused criminals whom they have dead to rights.  It’s a last chance for the accused to spill their guts, telling everything they know about higher level criminals in the hopes of plea-bargaining their sentence down.

Rick Gates has reportedly had a queen for a day interview.  This is not good news for Donald Trump.  Nor was the indictment last Friday of 13 Russians, even though Trump’s immediate reaction was celebratory.  If you’re wondering about the significance of those indictments, take a look at the tweets he sent on Sunday.  He was in full panic mode. 

Someone must have taken Trump aside and explained that these indictments did NOT exonerate him.  Rather, they rendered his first line of defense (denying that Russian interference in the 2016 election ever happened) dead on arrival. 

If there were any smart people in the White House, they’d be hard at work on a narrative in which Donald Trump was an innocent victim, betrayed by his campaign underlings who, unbeknownst to him, worked with Russia on his behalf in 2016.  That version of events would have unraveled sooner or later, but in the moment, it would have been hailed as one of those “pivots” that the mainstream media longs for.  Beltway pundits would have talked themselves into believing it, at least until Mueller’s next round of indictments.

But instead of developing a false but temporarily sustainable narrative, Trump continued to double down on his false and now totally unsustainable “no collusion” mantra.

Occam’s Razor is a medieval problem-solving rubric which posits that when you encounter two or more competing explanations for a given phenomenon, you should prefer the explanation that is least complicated.

In order to advocate for Donald Trump’s no collusion story, you have some ‘splainin’ to do.  You have to explain why he tells so many demonstrable lies about his relationship with Russia.  Specifically, why has he lied about his business relationships with Russians; about the nature of his contacts with Russians before and during his campaign; about Russian interference on his behalf in 2016; about Don Jr.’s motives for meeting with Russian spies during the campaign; and about his own motives for firing James Comey?  While you’re at it, why does he keep lying about the FBI and the American intelligence community?

None of his lies are particularly clever or convincing.  They are easily disproved by information in the public record, often including earlier statements from Trump himself.  If he’s innocent, why does Donald Trump go to the trouble of telling such easily refutable lies?

I can only think of two simple answers to that question.  You could argue that these particular Trump lies are meaningless, because he lies about everything.  He has lied so long and so consistently that by now he may not even know the difference between true and false.  It’s just Trump being Trump. 

Alas, there are two major problems with that argument.  First, it’s not a very inspiring defense.  If that’s the best his supporters can do, it begs for the invocation of the 25th Amendment’s incapacity clause.  Not to mention that it is entirely possible that Trump could be both a delusional liar AND be guilty of working with Russia to steal the 2016 election.

Or, instead of clinging to a position that requires us to believe six impossible things before breakfast, we could opt for the other simple explanation for Trump’s lies about Russia, which also has the virtue of being consistent with publicly available evidence:  Trump is guilty; he knows he’s guilty; and he knows that Mueller knows.  Since he can’t mount a principled, reality-based defense, he and his minions’ only hope is to cry “fake news” and hope that his followers will choose Trump over principles and reality.

Meanwhile, Robert Mueller quietly dropped another indictment on Tuesday – that of Dutch attorney Alexander van der Zwaan.  Zwaan is the son of a prominent Russian oligarch with ties to Vladimir Putin, and he’s already pleaded guilty.  Mueller is using Zwaan and Rick Gates to tighten the screws on Paul Manafort, Trump’s one-time campaign manager.  Manafort is one of a small number of people outside Trump’s immediate family whose testimony could cripple Trump’s presidency.

The fact that Trump is scared means that the good guys are winning.

 

I'LL HUNT DOWN GAME, I'LL BLAST AWAY, I'LL SHOOT WHAT E'RE I CAN

I wrote a version of this essay in July, 2016, in the aftermath of the Orlando Pulse nightclub shooting.  That was before I had my blog.  I’m updating it here for posterity, and because – against all odds – the school shooting in Florida earlier this month may have actually been a tipping point in the war against NRA-inspired domestic terrorism.

When I was about five years old, the United States was involved in a war in Korea.  I was much too young to understand anything about it.  Since the conflict was over before the first television broadcasts penetrated into my corner of Kansas, I’m not sure how I even came to form an opinion.  But somehow, I was really gung-ho.  I told my father that I hoped I got to fight in a war someday.  He gave me an astonished look and said, “I hope you never do.” 

I grew up in Kansas in the 1950s, a time and place where hunting and fishing were traditional bonding activities between father and son.  My father wasn’t really fond of either activity, but he dutifully took me on hunting and fishing expeditions a few times.  I suspect he was relieved when it became clear that I liked the idea of hunting and fishing much more than I enjoyed the actual outdoors experience.  But I did like the gear.  And I liked shooting guns.  We had a single shot .22 rifle and an old .410 shotgun, and my father would sometimes drive me out into the countryside and set up a row of bottles and tin cans that I could shoot at. 

By the time I reached my teens, I’d lost my taste for battle.  I was a bookworm, with no desire to hurt anyone.  But weapons still fascinated me – especially old ones.  Modern assault rifles look like weapons a robot would carry in a bad science fiction movie.  But I’d be thrilled if I woke up on Christmas morning and found that Santa had left me a catapult, a blunderbuss, a crossbow, or a Thompson sub-machine gun.

I mention all this simply to say that I can kinda-sorta understand how a certain segment of gun owners feel about their shootin’ irons.  

What I don’t get, though, is the paranoia that frequently accompanies gun ownership in America.  It is a truism that every time a crazy person goes on a shooting rampage, people who already own firearms rush to the store to buy more guns and ammo. 

I kept wondering what these people planned to do with all those guns.  There aren’t many activities which require a basement full of automatic weapons and ammunition.  Protection against intruders?  Nah, one or two weapons is all you’d need.  Hunting?  Not unless you were facing a flock of velociraptors.  I suppose if you were planning a Las Vegas-style mass murder, you’d want to have as much firepower as possible.  Maybe some gun hoarders are aspiring mass murderers, or at least people who like to fantasize about being a mass murderer.  But surely those folks are in the minority among those who compulsively hoard weapons.  There had to be another explanation.

And sure enough, an angry comment on a friend’s Facebook wall became my “aha” moment.  “The idea of an armed populace is to ensure we as a people don't find ourselves being loaded onto cattlecars. The idea is to strike fear into any would be despot’s heart. Those willing to give up freedom for security deserve, and will get...neither.”

There’s a lot going on in that statement, so I’ll unpack it in stages.  The second sentence is a paraphrase – a distortion, really – of a quote by Benjamin Franklin, who wrote "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."  Franklin was defending the right of a government (Pennsylvania Colony) to levy taxes to pay for frontier defense during the French and Indian War (or the Seven Years War, as it was known in Europe, from 1756-1763).  In other words, Franklin was defending the power of the state against the rights of the individual – the powerful Penn family, in this case, who refused to acknowledge the colony’s right to levy taxes.

With that out of the way, let’s do a comparative risk analysis of the respective dangers of firearms in the hands of mass murders vs. the likelihood of an American despot rounding up political dissidents and shipping them off to concentration camps.  Sadly, American history is replete with examples of mass relocation of undesirable populations.  In the 19th century, the American government pushed multiple Native American tribes out of their homelands and onto much less desirable reservations (killing many of them in the process).  In the mid-20th century, Japanese-Americans were placed in internment camps during World War II. 

The common denominator in these shameful actions is that the perpetrators were all white, and the victims were all minorities.  Americans of German and Italian descent were never put in detention camps during World War II.  They were white.  They got the benefit of the doubt. 

This inconvenient truth doesn’t fit the gun nuts’ persecution fantasies.  Consciously or unconsciously, they project their own worst motives onto Democrats.  Their paranoia reached its apex during President Obama’s administration, when Deplorable Nation told itself that any minute now, this Kenyan Muslim was going to rescind the Second Amendment, impose sharia law, make them get gay-married, and confiscate their arsenal.  Somehow, he never got around to doing any of that.  Perhaps he was too busy overseeing the Bowling Green Massacre and the Battle of Jade Helm. 

But even if there was a certain Bizarro-World logic to this paranoia in 2016, why are gun nuts still compulsively adding to their arsenals after every massacre in 2018?   Are they worried that their boy, Donald Trump, is going to turn on them?    

Bringing it all back home, I’ll note there have been two gun-related mass murders in Tucson in recent years.  The first was in 2002, when a disgruntled student shot up a classroom in the University of Arizona’s College of Nursing, leaving four people dead.  The second occurred in 2011 outside a grocery store at a campaign event for Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords, in which six people died and a dozen others were wounded.  During that same period, exactly no one was herded onto a cattle car by a despotic government.  In fact, there hasn’t been a single cattle car herding incident since I moved to Tucson in 1973. 

I want to add that I’m pretty dubious about the cattle car analogy itself, which smacks of Holocaust victim blaming.  Even if Jewish families in Europe were all equipped with the best weaponry available to private citizens at the time, they couldn’t have fought off the Nazis.  The site of the slaughter would have been the ghettoes rather than the camps, and there would have been a few Nazi casualties.  But anyone who thinks that armed civilians could have stopped the Wehrmacht is crazy. 

Similarly, we have ample evidence that American militia types are kidding themselves when they fantasize about scaring the government.  From the Branch Davidian siege near Waco in 1993 to the Bundy brothers’ clown show at a wildlife refuge in Oregon in 2016, they’ve all failed.  The lucky ones simply made fools of themselves.  The rest of them are dead.

Face it.  If a modern government wants you, they’ll get you, dead or alive.  Your assault weapons won’t help much against a police swat team, much less a military unit with tanks and drones.  Resistance – or at least armed resistance – is indeed futile. 

But there’s something else wrong with the Facebook commenter’s position.  His rationale for gun hoarding completely ignores the actual text of the Second Amendment.  The full text makes it clear what the Founding Fathers were trying to achieve by including it in the Bill of Rights.  It says: “A well regulated militia being necessary to the security of a free state, the right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed.”

Plainly, the Founding Fathers saw the right to keep and bear arms as a means to maintain the security of the state.  The STATE, folks, not individual gun owners.  The government, in other words.

In 18th century America, we had no standing army and no central repository of weapons.  When an army was deemed necessary, citizen soldiers answered the call, and brought their own weapons.  Voila: a well-regulated militia.  “Well-regulated” meant that those citizen soldiers followed orders in a chain of command that began at the top with the President as Commander in Chief. 

But gun nuts don’t talk about the first half of their favorite constitutional amendment.  They aren’t interested in being well-regulated, or in following orders.  They seem more interested in defying the government than protecting it. 

Not every gun owner is stupid-crazy.  I have friends who are gun enthusiasts, and they’re solid citizens.  They store their guns (mostly antique pistols) responsibly and don’t use them to commit crimes. 

But that still leaves plenty of gun nuts running around.  I knew one back in the 90s.  He qualified as a gun nut rather than simply gun owner because he turned every conversation into a ringing defense of the Second Amendment and the need for a “second American revolution.”  Most of his co-workers were scared of him.  He spent his weekends tramping around southern Arizona with the Minutemen Civil Defense Corps.  They’d dress in camouflage and look for Mexican immigrants passing through Cochise County.  The Minutemen were led by recently convicted child molester, Chris Simcox.  Other prominent Minutemen included convicted murderer Shawna Forde, as well as J.T. Ready, a Neo-Nazi who killed four people and then committed suicide.  Nice folks, eh?

As for me, I’m often annoyed by my government, but until Donald Trump took power, I’ve never been afraid of it.  I am afraid of people like my former co-worker and his pals.  I’m willing to trade a microscopic amount of liberty (in the form of an assault weapons ban, for instance) in order to make it harder for stupid-crazy people to kill me and my neighbors.  That’s an easy call. 

The Second Amendment strikes me as an 18th century anachronism, rooted in even older English Common Law.  If it were up to me, I’d repeal it. 

Failing that, why can’t we simply insist that the first 13 words be interpreted as absolute boundary conditions for the last 15 words?  If you’re a member of a branch of the United States military – active duty or reserve – you’re entitled to keep and bear whatever arms your commanding officer thinks you need.  Ditto for law enforcement personnel.  Everyone else, not so much. 

If you want an assault rifle, become a soldier or a cop. 

If you say you’re a hunter, or that you need a firearm to protect your home, fine.  You can choose from a wide variety of single shot rifles, shotguns, and pistols that will more than meet those needs.  Each purchase will be entered into a nation-wide database, and will come with a title, just like a car.  You’ll need to have a firearms license, just like you need a driver’s license, which will require you to pass a simple written test on applicable gun laws.  And if you sell one of your guns, you’ll need to do an official title transfer, just as you would if you sold your car.  If you’ve been convicted of a violent crime, you forfeit your right to own a gun. 

Can't do the time, don't do the crime.

 

THIS WORLD WAS LUCKY JUST TO SEE HIM BORN

President’s Day is one of those minor holidays that functions mostly as a disruption in mail delivery and trash/recycling pickup.  Today, I’ll ignore those minor inconveniences and tip my hat to Franklin Delano Roosevelt, America’s 32nd president. 

Why him?  Apart from the fact that he ranks with Washington and Lincoln among our greatest presidents, he was president on February 19, 1945, when the first wave of Marines landed on Iwo Jima, as the image accompanying this post illustrates.  Two of my uncles, Roy and Dayton Cline, enlisted in the Marines after Pearl Harbor.  They made it home.  6,800 Marines died on Iwo Jima.

My brother-in-law’s father, who was part of the D-Day invasion force in France eight months earlier, also made it home.  When I was in college, I heard him try to describe what it was like.  He said “I saw things you wouldn’t believe,” and then he started crying.  2,500 Americans and 2,000 more British and Canadian soldiers died on those beaches.

I literally can’t imagine what they went through, and I’m in awe of their courage.  Both my parents also served during World War II, though in less hazardous circumstances.  My father was an Army Air Force airplane mechanic in the South Pacific, and my mother was an Army nurse in Europe.  And I’m determined that none of those veterans, living and dead, endured their hardships just so the current resident of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue could turn the country over to Russia.

Register, vote, and resist. 

(FYI, the title of this post comes from an obscure Woody Guthrie song, “Dear Mrs. Roosevelt.”)

THERE'S MORE TO THE PICTURE THAN MEETS THE EYE

It’s easy to overlook bits of good news in the aftermath of the awful NRA-inspired terrorist attack in Florida, but for the record, here are some positive developments related to the Russo-Republican election rigging investigation.

CNN has confirmed something I speculated about a couple of weeks ago – that former Trump campaign advisor Rick Gates is working on a plea deal with Mueller.  As Paul Manafort’s lieutenant, Gates knows stuff that would damage Donald J. Trump, and put Manafort in prison for life.  Win-win.

Last week also brought news that real estate tycoon Jared Kushner was in hock up to his ears.  Jared and Ivanka had claimed in July that their debt amounted to between $1-5 million.  That’s not a big deal.  Who among us hasn’t been $5 million in debt at one time or another? 

But now they’ve revised their estimated debt upwards – way upwards – to somewhere between $31 million and $155 million.  First of all, that’s quite a range.  If they’re reduced to taking wild guesses, they must really be screwed.  But more importantly, how the hell did the genius tasked by Donald J. Trump with bringing peace to the Middle East and solving the opioid crisis manage to lose so much money? 

Of course, his father-in-law also gave Jared another little assignment – to run the government like a business.  That would explain why the Trump-Ryan tax cuts left us with a trillion dollar increase in our national debt.  It begs the question – is Jared Kushner good at anything?  No wonder the FBI refuses to approve Kushner’s security clearance.   

But perhaps the biggest news came on Friday, when Robert Mueller indicted 13 Russians for interfering with the 2016 election.  As usual when Mueller hands down an indictment, Donald Trump and his supporters immediately declared victory, because none of them were named in the indictment.  And as usual, they’ve underestimated Mueller.

First of all, these indictments mean that a grand jury has affirmed what Trump spent the past year trying to deny.  When our national intelligence agencies unanimously agreed that Russia was behind the election hacks, Trump said it could have been “somebody sitting on their bed that weighs 400 lbs.”  Maybe one of the Russians weighs 400 lbs. and worked from his bedroom, but there’s no longer any reason to doubt that Russians did the dirty work.  Mueller’s indictment describes what they did and how they did it in detail.

Remember also that Mueller never gives away his whole hand.  This indictment contains hints of more to come.  In particular, there is, in item 81, a fascinating reference to “over 100 real U.S. persons” who were being manipulated by these 13 Russians, as well as to “activities they had been asked to perform by Defendants and their co-conspirators.” 

I hope we find out who those real U.S. persons are, and what each of them did.  They need to know that they were working for Russia.  I also hope we learn the identities of those mysterious co-conspirators. 

The “fake news” crowd will go into their usual song and dance, but the truth is emerging despite their best efforts.

BOY, YOU'VE GOT TO CARRY THAT WEIGHT

The world of children’s/young adult literature is currently going through a #MeToo reckoning.  Some of the men who have been accused of bad behavior have, predictably, lashed out at their accusers, claiming that they, not the women in their paths, were the victims.

Someone named Myke Cole, however, posted an apology on his blog (link below) that has been cited by women in the field as a model of its kind.  I’m not familiar with either Cole’s work or what he might have done that merited this confession and apology, but I was impressed by it.

Money quote: “If you’re a friend who is thinking of stepping in to defend me, please don’t. The culture only changes if people own their behavior, without excuses, exceptions or defenses. I did this. It’s mine to carry.”

http://mykecole.com/when-you-make-a-mistake-you-have-to-own-it/

"FAITH WITHOUT WORKS IS DEAD"

That's a quote from the Bible.  James, the brother of Jesus, said it (James 2:20).  It’s something to keep in mind when you hear the same politicians offering their same thoughts and prayers in the aftermath of another mass killing.  Offering thoughts and prayers has become a cheap political ritual.  It’s shorthand for “I’m not going to take any concrete action to prevent future massacres, because the NRA might cut off my allowance.  Instead, I will cloak my cowardice in piety and hope no one notices.”   

The thing that most challenges my faith in our democratic system is the stranglehold that the National Rifle Association has on American politics.  The NRA is the single most destructive force in America today.  Not coincidentally, they spent $55 million helping Republicans in the 2016 election, of which $30 went to the Trump campaign. 

And guess what?  There appear to be Russian fingerprints on some of that money.  The McClatchy news organization reported last month (link below) that the FBI is investigating the NRA’s connection to one Alexander Torshin, deputy director of the central bank of Russia.  If the NRA used Russian money to influence a federal election, they broke the law.

In 1859, Abraham Lincoln gave a speech in which he referred to the origin of a famous Persian adage:  “It is said an Eastern monarch once charged his wise men to invent him a sentence, to be ever in view, and which should be true and appropriate in all times and situations. They presented him the words: "And this, too, shall pass away." How much it expresses! How chastening in the hour of pride! How consoling in the depths of affliction!”

Maybe our national gun fetish will pass someday.  I hope it happens before American democracy perishes in a hail of bullets and rubles.  When it comes to mass killings, I fear that things will get worse before they get better.  Thoughts and prayers will fly thick and fast – but not as fast as NRA campaign contributions.   

This is what Jon Lovett (Pod Save America, Lovett or Leave It) said last fall after the Las Vegas massacre.

“Oh, this is the worst one ever?  It won’t be for long.  More people will die.  And they you’ll see the politicians say, “There’s just no words.”  Why don’t you have words?  Why?  Are you surprised? You shouldn’t be.  You shouldn’t be surprised at all. It’s going to happen again; it’s going to happen in a month.  This is giving somebody else an idea – someone is going to watch this and they’re going to have the idea, and nothing is going to stand in their way. And we’re going to realize after the fact that we couldn’t stop that person.  And then that’s going to give somebody an idea.  And it’s just going to happen again and again, and we should face that, because that’s what’s happening.”

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-world/national/article195231139.html

PUT ON THAT GRIN AND START RIGHT IN AND WHISTLE WHILE YOU WORK

Here’s another good article by Ezra Klein on the Vox website, this one about why a man who bragged about hiring only the best people has wound up with such a dysfunctional staff.

TL;DR?

Start with this. Trump’s boast about hiring the best people was never true in the first place.  Trump wants constant praise and blind loyalty, so he surrounds himself with courtiers rather than competence.  The result is constant in-fighting, as sycophants jockey for position.  Everyone’s waiting to knife everyone else in the back.  After a year of this very public dysfunction, competent people who might otherwise want a White House staff job see the Trump White House as a career killer, and stay away.

Klein: “Forget the best people. It’s an open question whether he can even attract qualified people. But that’s because this isn’t really a crisis of staffing. It’s a crisis of management.”

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/2/13/17004108/trump-aides-legal-fees-firing-resignations

MOSTLY SAY HOORAY FOR OUR SIDE

MOSTLY SAY HOORAY FOR OUR SIDE:  Check out the link below for a really good article by Ezra Klein on why the Russo-Republican disinformation campaign doesn’t mind if you catch them lying. 

TL;DR? 

First, the Russo-Republicans seriously don’t care about your opinion one way or the other. Their primary target is Trump’s base, and secondarily, susceptible Greens and Libertarians. Second, their goal isn’t even to convince the base that their narrative is true.  What they’re trying to do is muddy the waters enough that their target demographic won’t expend much energy on trying to sort out the facts.  They want the default question about political claims to be not “is it true?” but rather “is it good for our side?”

My conclusion:  The job of the reality-based community is to restrict the spread of this contagious insanity.  Which is why – per my post on Friday – it’s important for the press to stop pulling its punches and speak plainly about what’s going on, rather than to help muddy the waters with ambiguous headlines and bogus bothsidesism. 

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/2/9/16991410/trump-fox-nunes-fbi-warner-texts