THE NOOSE AROUND US IS SLOWLY TIGHTENING

Last June, I was worried that Donald Trump was about to fire Robert Mueller.  Actually, I worry about that fairly frequently.  When I’m worried enough to write about it, I sometimes wonder if I’m straying into “the little boy who cried wolf” territory.  But the failing New York Times reported yesterday that there was reason to be concerned last summer.

Obviously, Trump didn’t fire Mueller in June, but according to the Times’ story, it wasn’t for lack of trying.  He ordered one of his attorneys, Don McGahn, to do the deed.  To his credit, McGahn refused, and threatened to resign.  In other words, Trump tried to obstruct justice, and failed.  When one of his underlings stood up to him, he backed down.  Among other things, this story makes him look weak, and he must be furious that it has come out. 

While it’s good to have my earlier suspicions confirmed, the Times story raises a couple of new questions.  I wonder who decided that this was a good time to leak this information to the press, and why now.  The most logical “who” is McGahn himself.  As to why now, a couple of possibilities come to mind, which are not mutually exclusive.  Perhaps Trump is again threatening privately to fire Mueller, and his attorneys want to scuttle the plan to keep him from committing blatant obstruction of justice. 

But it’s also possible that McGahn knows the jig is up, and has decided to engage in an off the record PR campaign to save his own reputation.

It's worth noting that McGahn hired his own lawyer last fall, former federal prosecutor William Burck.  Not coincidentally, Burck also represents former White House bigwigs Reince Priebus, Sean Spicer, and Steve Bannon.  That’s a little unusual, because if any of Burck’s clients contradict each other in response to questions from Mueller’s team, it would be awkward for Burck, to say the least.  Therefore, my guess is that all of Burck’s clients are cooperating with Mueller.  If true, this is bad news for Donald Trump. 

Part of proving the charge of obstruction of justice is establishing intent.  McGahn, Priebus, Spicer, and Bannon were all around at times when Trump was venting.  They could shoot down any claims that his motive for firing James Comey, for instance, was motivated purely by concern for FBI morale.

Trump himself has vacillated about whether he’d agree to be interviewed by Mueller’s team, although his most recent comment was that he’d be willing do it.  Trump’s attorneys (McGahn, plus Ty Cobb and John Dowd) must sweat bullets at the thought of Donald Trump being interrogated by the Special Counsel’s investigators.  Press reports suggest that Mueller has given Trump’s lawyers a list of topics they want to ask about.  But even if Team Trump knew not only the topics, but the exact questions; and even if they had a month to coach their client about what (and what not) to say, Trump would blow it. 

He is incapable of sticking to his script for longer than a minute or two.  Sooner rather than later, he’d begin to wing it.  He’d start making stuff up, and contradicting himself.  He can’t help himself, really.  Liars gonna lie.  The last thing the White House legal team needs is perjury charges on top of everything else.  I’d be surprised if Donald Trump voluntarily submitted to an interview with Mueller’s team, unless one of his lawyers was glued to his side.

Two other recent pieces of news on the Trump-Russia conspiracy front are worth noting.  We learned earlier this week that Rick Gates, Paul Manafort’s lieutenant, has hired a new lawyer.  Word on the street is that this means he’s flipped, and is negotiating a deal with Robert Mueller.  If that’s true, Manafort is toast.  He was probably toast anyway, but if Gates testifies against him, he’s looking at the prospect of dying in prison unless he cooperates with Mueller.  Or, it must be said, unless he’s pardoned by Donald Trump.  But even then, he’d still have to answer to New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman.  It’s not a good time to be Paul Manafort.

And finally (for the moment), it turns out that in 2014, the Dutch General Intelligence and Security Service penetrated a Russian cyber warfare operation known as Cozy Bear, which – along with a similar group known as Fancy Bear – was responsible for hacking the DNC servers in 2016.  The Dutch not only made themselves at home in Cozy Bear’s servers, but they even hacked a security camera at the entrance of Cozy Bear headquarters near Red Square.  Of course, Robert Mueller has access to the Dutch findings.  If any members of the Trump campaign or the Republican National Committee (including their contractors) were in communication with Cozy Bear, Mueller knows about it.

While much of this information was new to the American public, it’s all stuff that Robert Mueller has known for a long time.  When Mueller and his team interview White House staff, for instance, they already know the answer to the questions they’re asking, via friendly witnesses, wiretaps, or other electronic eavesdropping.  If Trump’s people lie, as some of them have been dumb enough to do, Mueller can charge them with perjury, giving him additional leverage.

While increasingly desperate congressional Republicans spin bogus conspiracy theories in an attempt to discredit him, Mueller and his team have been quietly putting the pieces of the puzzle together.  In classic fashion, they’ve built cases against relatively minor players, persuading several of them to flip.  Then they’ve used the new information to tighten the noose around the Trump family kingpins. 

People close to Trump are finally figuring out that Mueller holds all the cards. The rats are deserting the sinking ship.  Or maybe the ship is deserting the sinking rat.