IF THAT'S A CRIME, I STAND CONVICTED

And the dominoes begin to fall.  Donald Trump finally turned in his homework, which precipitated a very interesting development in Robert Mueller’s investigation.

Trump and his legal team gave the Special Counsel their written answers to Mueller’s questions over a week ago.  And yesterday, after initially asking for a delay, Mueller submitted his sentencing recommendations for Paul Manafort.  The timing of those two events seems connected, and it looks like Mueller may have sprung a trap.

Remember that Manafort was convicted of 8 felonies, and pleaded guilty to 12 others.  In return for leniency in sentencing, he agreed to fully cooperate with Mueller’s investigation.  That agreement included very draconian penalties (asset forfeiture, long prison sentences) for lying to the Special Counsel.  And then he lied to the Special Counsel. 

Why might he have taken that risk?  I can think of three possibilities. 

First, maybe he and his legal team were stupid enough to think they could lie and get away with it.  Second, it’s entirely possible – probable, even – that Manafort has reason to expect a pardon from Donald Trump.  And third, it’s also entirely possible that Manafort knows that the Russian mob (in the person of his former patron, Semion Mogolevich) will kill him and his entire family if he tells everything he knows.  Those three possibilities are not mutually exclusive.

It’s the second possibility, the prospect of a pardon, that interests me.  It is a matter of record that Manafort’s attorneys had a joint defense agreement with Trump’s attorneys.  Team Trump probably thought they were milking the Manafort probe for inside information that they could use to protect their boy.  My guess is that Mueller knew all along (based on testimony from other witnesses and on wiretaps) that Manafort was lying to him, and used him to bait a trap for Donald Trump.  If Trump’s written testimony lines up with Manafort’s demonstrable lies, that’s going to look an awful lot like obstruction of justice, not to mention perjury.  That’s assuming, of course, that Trump lied in his written testimony, which seems like a pretty safe bet.

Mueller also promised a “detailed sentencing submission” that details Manafort’s “crimes and lies.”  Since the case has already been adjudicated, it’s hard to see how our faux Attorney General Matt Whitaker could suppress or manipulate it. 

I’ve read speculation that Mueller will submit two versions of his “detailed sentencing submission” – one with some information redacted for public consumption, and a complete version for the court’s eyes only.  If that happens, I suspect that one of the first things Adam Schiff will do when he takes over as chair of the House Select Committee on Intelligence on January 3 is subpoena the full report.   

Long story short?  Yesterday was a good day for the good guys.