TALKIN' 'BOUT MY G-G-GENERATION

In his 1963 novel Cat’s Cradle, Kurt Vonnegut Jr coined a very useful term for groups whose shared bond is largely imaginary.  He called it a granfalloon, a collective noun that sounds reasonable on the surface, but which upon closer examination, turns out to be a meaningless distinction.  

I think named generations are like that.  I’m on the books as a Baby Boomer, born in 1947.  The official Baby Boom generation is the cohort born between 1946 and 1964.  But there’s no way I have more in common with someone born in 1964 than with someone born in 1945.  I went to school with kids born in 1945.  I was in college by the time kids born in 1964 celebrated their first birthday. 

But granfalloon or no granfalloon, I sympathize with young whippersnappers in their 40s and 50s who are tired of hearing about Woodstock and the glorious Sixties.  I also sympathize with those who’d like to give younger candidates an opportunity to see what they can do.  It strikes me as weird that three of our past four presidents were born in the same year (Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Donald Trump, all born in 1946). 

And that brings me to the two current leaders of the Democratic pack.  The good news is that neither Bernie Sanders nor Joe Biden were born in 1946.  The bad news is that they’re even older.  Bernie Sanders was born in 1941, and Joe Biden was born in 1942, which means that their particular granfalloon is known as the “Silent Generation,” the name for people born between 1928-1945.  Interestingly, no member of the Silent Generation has ever been elected president. 

Just between you and me, I’d like to keep it that way.

It is a political truism that Democratic voters want to fall in love with a candidate, while Republicans just want to win.  Our two oldest candidates for the Democratic nomination split the difference.  Bernie Sanders inspires starry eyed infatuation among his most idealistic followers.  Joe Biden, to be sure, inspires a certain amount of affection, but he’s positioning himself as the pragmatic alternative to the Vermont socialist.   

I value pragmatism, although not as an end in itself.  And as a practical matter, I wonder how deep Biden’s support really is.  His notorious boundary issues could hurt him among women voters.  He’s been a politician forever, and he didn’t distinguish himself for most of his career in the Senate.  He has a remarkable personal history, and has proved that he can take a licking and keep on ticking.  But politically, his primary asset seems to be the fact that Barack Obama is fond of him.  That’s nothing to sneeze at, of course.  He’s running as the adult in the room, a calm, stabilizing figure who can help the country step back from Trump craziness.  That’s a message that could resonate with the electorate.   The good news for Biden is that, whatever his #MeToo issues, Trump has done something similar but worse, repeatedly, and without remorse. 

If Joe Biden is the Democratic nominee, I will vote for him.  Full stop, no quibbles or caveats.  And I’ll say the same thing about the other old geezer in the race.  If Bernie Sanders is the Democratic nominee, I will vote for him.  Full stop, no quibbles or caveats.

Vox Media’s Matt Yglesias offered this observation about Bernie’s relationship with the Democratic Party: “Professionalism has become the most underrated virtue in US politics and the Bernie people are mostly wrong because they particularly underrate it. But also many Dem insiders are failing to display professionalism in their stance toward Bernie.”

I understand why some Democratic Party functionaries resent Bernie Sanders.  Their job is to advance the interests of the Democratic Party, and Sanders famously isn’t a Democrat.  For party professionals, it must be annoying to watch someone like Bernie freelance for three years and then, every fourth year, decide to seek the nomination of a political party he refuses to join and doesn’t seem to respect.  But part of the job of a party professional is to behave professionally.  Whatever they may think of Bernie, his policy proposals resonate with many Democrats, and it’s stupid to alienate those voters.  The DNC and the rest of the Democratic establishment should relax, give Sanders a chance to debate and compete for votes in the primaries and the caucuses, and see what happens.

So Bernie is a millionaire now?  I say, good for him.  His recipe for becoming a millionaire – just write a bestselling book – strikes me as tone deaf, but as far as I know, he earned his money fair and square.  If he didn’t, we’ll find out soon enough, because reporters will go over his tax returns with a fine-tooth comb.  But at this point, my main takeaway is that he released his tax returns, and did it early in the nomination process.  He deserves credit for that.

But I will also say that, unlike 2016, when Bernie was my first choice during the Democratic primaries, he’s not my favorite for 2020.  For one thing, there are a lot more candidates to choose from this time around, and some of them share many of Bernie’s values.  It seems fair to ask whether one of those other candidates would be more likely to beat Donald Trump in the next general election.  Trump thrives when he has a foil, an enemy he can caricature and demonize.  Among the current Democratic field, Bernie looks like he’d be one of Trump’s natural foils. 

That doesn’t mean Bernie can’t win, or that he shouldn’t be nominated.  Sanders will, of course, fight back against Republican attacks, as he will against criticism from his opponents in the Democratic primaries.  What remains to be seen is how effective his counter-attacks will be.  Bernie sometimes takes criticism personally, and he can come off as prickly and defensive, as witness his comments about his net worth. 

I also worry about the demographics of Bernie’s base.  His most enthusiastic supporters tend to be white and male.  That’s not a great look for a party whose success is now largely determined by voter turnout among women and African-Americans.  Sanders will have to prove that he can appeal to those important constituencies, and it may be harder this time around, since he’s competing against women and African-Americans who are viable candidates.

Still, “harder” isn’t the same as impossible.  Bernie will have a chance to make his case in the primaries, and his message will resonate with a lot of Democratic voters.  Indeed, it resonates so well that there will be plenty of candidates campaigning on policies pretty similar to Bernie’s.  The contrast between, for instance, Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, won’t be as stark as the Sanders-Clinton differences in 2016.  Most of 2020’s top tier Democrats could run comfortably on a platform featuring some version of Bernie’s issues, and the Democratic platform in 2020 will skew progressive, no matter who wins the nomination.

In 2016, Bernie Sanders was an exciting novelty, and he gave a voice to frustrated progressives.  Today, he’s a known quantity, and some of his rivals sound pretty Bernie-esque.  Sanders has a fair claim on having been the first to articulate these positions, but ultimately it won’t matter who said it first.  It will matter who says it best.

In political campaigns, the messenger is as important as the message.  It’s important that Democrats find a nominee who not only supports progressive policies, but also has the ability to sell those policies to a wide spectrum of voters.  Bernie’s good at preaching to the choir, and he’s got a very loud choir.  We’ll see if he can get the entire congregation to sing along.

Ironically, one of Bernie’s important assets – his cadre of fiercely loyal followers – is also a potential liability.  A subset of his followers – the ones they call Bernie Bros – have more in common with Trump cultists than they might like to admit.  “Bernie or bust” isn’t a recruiting slogan or a negotiating position.  It’s a tacit admission that “bust” is the outcome you’re expecting. 

I’ll have more to say about both Sanders and Biden, but for the moment, I’ll leave it at this.  I will vote for Bernie Sanders if he’s the Democratic nominee.  Ditto for Joe Biden.  But frankly, I’d rather not have to.  I would personally prefer to vote for a candidate who’s younger than I am.  Fortunately, that takes in a lot of territory, including everyone from Pete Buttigieg to – just barely – Elizabeth Warren. 

Now that the field of candidates is more or less set, meaningful campaigning will soon kick into gear.  Let’s see who does the best job of appealing to voters.  And while the campaign for the nomination is playing out, let’s try not to burn any bridges along the way.  We’ll need every vote we can get.