THE WORDS OF THE PROPHETS ARE WRITTEN

Comes the news that a Russian oligarch named Vladimir Marugov, known colloquially as “the Sausage King,” was murdered.  With a crossbow.  In a sauna.  I haven’t played Clue in a long time.  Maybe the newest versions of the game have crossbows and saunas as options – Colonel Mustard in the sauna with a crossbow.  If they don’t, they’re missing a bet.  Adding a few new Russia-specific murder tools – crossbow, polonium soup, defenestration – would lend a 21st century perspective to the game. 

Since we’re now living in a world where billionaires are killed in their saunas with crossbows, is any political prediction or projection implausible?  Hold my beer.

Call me a cockeyed optimist, immature and irretrievably green, but I’m feeling pretty good about the outcome of the election.  Of course, I felt the same way four years ago.  I thought Hillary Clinton would win going away.  Live and learn.  Or maybe, live and repeat your mistakes.  We’ll know soon.

So my prediction is that Joe Biden will win the presidency going away.  His margin of victory will put him far enough beyond cheating distance that Trump’s shysters won’t find it worth their while to file bogus legal challenges.  I predict that Biden will carry Arizona, and at least four of Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, and Texas. 

I predict that Democrats will wind up with a new Senate majority (with Mark Kelly replacing Martha McSally in AZ) and a somewhat larger majority in the House.

I’m writing this on Monday, November 2, the day before the election.  It’s funny that I still think of an “election day,” even though I voted weeks ago.  Maybe more accurate to say that I’m writing this before the votes have been counted and before the outcome is known. 

I’m a lot less worried this year about third-party voters and non-voters.  For some reason, Jo and Howie don’t seem to have the charisma of Gary and Jill.  So instead of hectoring folks who are opting out of the binary race, I’ll content myself with a few questions for them. 

Are you voting third party, or refusing to vote at all, to send a message?  If so, who are you sending that message to?  What evidence might indicate that they heard you?  If they didn’t hear you, what alternatives do you have to boost your signal next time?  Are you content to experience future presidential elections as Groundhog Day, poking your head up every four years, seeing your shadow, and diving back into your hole until the next election.  Or are you willing to put some work in?

Until recently, I’ve believed that, as a practical matter, it was impossible to create a viable new political party in the United States.  Today, I’m not so sure.  I think whichever party loses the presidency has the potential to splinter, kicking off a major political realignment in this country.  I think the splintering is much more likely to happen in the GOP than in the Democratic Party, but on the off chance that I’m wrong, I wonder whether progressives who despise Democrats are prepared to take advantage of this hypothetical new opportunity. 

I’ll be writing more about that in future posts.